A song popular in my youth was ‘The Gambler’ by Kenny Rogers. The chorus goes something like “You gotta know when to hold ’em, know when to fold ’em.”
I have some research projects which resulted in hard to publish papers. Today I read a book which referenced once of those papers in a complimentary way. Now I wonder if I really made the right decision when I did “fold ’em.”
But at best, the paper would appear in a low ranking outlet. It might not help for glory, but it certainly would help for lines for people outside my field. I never know exactly how to make the “hold ’em or fold ’em” trade-off.
Decision making under uncertainty is hard, especially when you yourself are trying to determine your own ability.
I wonder if overconfidence is good or bad in these situations.
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