The Gambler

A song popular in my youth was ‘The Gambler’ by Kenny Rogers.  The chorus goes something like “You gotta know when to hold ’em, know when to fold ’em.”

I have some research projects which resulted in hard to publish papers.  Today I read a book which referenced once of those papers in a complimentary way.  Now I wonder if I really made the right decision when I did “fold ’em.”

But at best, the paper would appear in a low ranking outlet.  It might not help for glory, but it certainly would help for lines for people outside my field.  I never know exactly how to make the “hold ’em or fold ’em” trade-off. 

Decision making under uncertainty is hard, especially when you yourself are trying to determine your own ability.

I wonder if overconfidence is good or bad in these situations.

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